More bad news for South Dakota Democrats

Pure Pierre Politics, South Dakota Government Blog by Bob Mercer

The election of President Barack Obama looked like it might mark the resurgence of the Democratic Party in South Dakota. Democratic voter registration rose from 190,905 for the 2006 general election to 204,413 for the 2008 general election. Democratic registration kept growing for months afterward, reaching 206,086 in early July 2009. And then the erosion began. Democratic registration fell steadily month by month since then. As of Aug. 3, it’s down to 192,993.

What about Republicans? They stood at 240,101 for the 2006 general election and were nearly unchanged at 241,528 for the 2008 general election. They peaked in July 2009 at 242,744 and then began falling too. Republican registration sank to 231,002 as of Dec. 1 — and then they started coming back up, month after month. As of Aug. 3, Republican registration stood at 234,589.

Independents meanwhile went through a slump and then rebounded too. They were at 74,608 for the 2006 general election and climbed to 82,473 for the 2008 general election. Independents got as high as 85,798 in July 2009 and then went through the same purge at courthouses as the Democrats and Republicans, dropping down as low as 80,711 last November. Like the Republicans, independents have increased registration since then. They were back up as high as 82,511 as of July 7 and were at 82,433 as of Aug. 3.

What’s it all mean? Republicans were in a funk during the final two of President George W. Bush’s administration, while Democrats racked up new voters in 2008 and early 2009. But Democrats have since lost nearly all of those gains and are in a nosedive that has seen them lose an average of more than 1,000 registered voters per month for a year straight. Republicans on the other hand stabilized last winter and have been adding back an average of 500 more registered voters a month since then. Independents stabilized last winter too and have been gaining an average of about 200 more registrants a month.

To put it another way, Democrats have lost more than 2,000 voters since December while Republicans added back more than 3,500 and independents have recovered some 1,700. These numbers suggest that recently-registered voters aren’t enthused about the economy, the Obama presidency or the Democratic-majority Congress. The momentum doesn’t seem to favor Democratic governor candidate Scott Heidepriem or Democratic U.S. Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin at this point less than 100 days before the Nov. 2 general election.

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