Election 2010: South Dakota Governor

Tuesday, June 15, 2010

Lieutenant Governor Dennis Daugaard, coming off his Republican Primary win last week, continues to hold a commanding lead over Democratic challenger Scott Heidepriem in the gubernatorial race in South Dakota.

A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in the state finds Duagaard earning 52% of the vote, while Heidepriem, a state senator, picks up 36% support. Only three percent (3%) prefer some other candidate, and nine percent (9%) more are undecided.

In three surveys conducted earlier this year, support for both candidates has shown little change. Daugaard’s support has ranged from 49% to 53%, while Heidepriem captured 32% to 36% of the vote. In late May, Daugaard posted a 51% to 36% lead.

Female voters prefer the Republican by a two-to-one margin, but male voters are almost evenly divided. Daugaard has a double-digit lead among voters not affiliated with either major party

Heidepriem faces a traditionally conservative electorate that hasn’t elected a Democratic governor since 1974.

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This statewide telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters in South Dakota was conducted on June 10, 2010 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

In South Dakota’s House of Representatives race, State Representative Kristi Noem enjoys a bounce in support following her Republican primary victory last Tuesday, earning her the right to challenge Congresswoman Stephanie Herseth-Sandlin. Noem leads that race 53% to 41%.

Sixty-six percent (66%) of voters in North Dakota favor repeal of the new national health care law, higher than support nationally for repeal. Thirty-one percent (31%) in the state oppose repeal. This includes 54% who Strongly Favor repeal of the law and 22% who are Strongly Opposed.

Seventy-three percent (73%) of the larger group who Strongly Favor repeal support Daugaard. Heidepriem earns 72% support from voters who Strongly Oppose repeal.

Twenty-four percent (24%) of all North Dakota voters consider themselves part of the Tea Party movement, compared to 16% nationally. Fifty-eight percent (58%) do not.

Seventy percent (70%) of Tea Party members support the Republican. Those who are not members are closely divided over the two candidates.

Heidepriem is viewed Very Favorably by 15% of the state’s voters and Very Unfavorably by 12%.

Twenty-seven percent (27%) have a Very Favorable opinion of Daugaard, while seven percent (7%) view him Very Unfavorably.

At this stage of the campaign, Rasmussen Reports considers the Very Favorable and Very Unfavorable figures more significant than the overall favorability totals.

A vast majority (78%) of South Dakota voters feel the U.S. military should be used on the Mexican border to prevent illegal immigration, matching the level measured nationally.

Sixty-five percent (65%) oppose a U.S. Justice Department challenge of Arizona's new immigration law, a move reportedly being considered by the Obama administration.

Sixty-four percent (64%) of the state’s voters approve of the job being done by current Governor Mike Rounds. Thirty-five percent (35%) disapprove of Rounds’ performance. Rounds, who has to step down due to term limits, endorsed Daugaard prior to the state’s GOP primary.

In 2008, Rasmussen Reports projected nationally that Barack Obama would defeat John McCain by a 52% to 46% margin. Obama won 53% to 46%. Four years earlier, Rasmussen Reports projected the national vote totals for both George W. Bush and John Kerry within half-a-percentage-point.

In South Dakota, Rasmussen Reports projected that McCain would defeat Obama by a 53% to 44% margin. McCain won 53% to 45%. In that same year, the final Rasmussen poll showed Senator Tim Johnson with a 54% to38% lead over Joel Dykstra. Johnson won 62% to 38%.

In 2004, Rasmussen Reports was the first to show John Thune ahead of Tom Daschle. The final Rasmussen poll showed Thune winning 49% to 46%. Thune won 51% to 49%. Also in 2004, the final Rasmussen poll showed Herseth leading Lawrence Diedrich 49% to 47%. Herseth won 53% to 46%.

Rasmussen Reports also has released recent polls on the 2010 governor's races in Alabama, Arizona, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Florida, Georgia, Hawaii, Idaho, Illinois, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Nebraska, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, New York, Ohio, Oklahoma, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, Wisconsin and Wyoming.

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See survey questions and toplines.